Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 220.898776 273.534237 340.790027 435.105850 567.478625 7.524242e+02 1.041624e+03
2025-02-02 169.479738 231.621449 323.026508 474.883507 738.210476 1.216643e+03 2.277242e+03
2025-02-09 139.854588 204.294223 308.874903 506.147242 912.742120 1.852136e+03 4.888960e+03
2025-02-16 118.990075 182.457765 293.320437 524.458930 1075.871269 2.672229e+03 1.056283e+04
2025-02-23 103.706266 165.208187 279.169525 537.548543 1239.687981 3.777174e+03 2.477161e+04
2025-03-02 89.511790 146.444702 256.448547 521.664934 1318.566379 4.791789e+03 5.462081e+04
2025-03-09 78.604133 131.476020 237.292335 506.313669 1391.194751 6.022367e+03 1.403162e+05
2025-03-16 69.302734 117.902671 217.858699 482.887990 1421.899163 7.201791e+03 4.040223e+05
2025-03-23 66.924088 117.367031 226.368853 538.905255 1819.335631 1.305639e+04 1.079205e+08
2025-03-30 61.928427 110.663133 219.282276 546.833855 2028.165687 1.917829e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 58.609784 106.922596 218.379514 574.426827 2387.083479 3.315171e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 53.981130 99.697866 207.371587 563.702429 2520.626123 4.655592e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 52.949588 100.475412 217.683569 638.150186 3411.344584 1.508137e+05 NaN
2025-04-27 51.299716 99.621609 223.645602 701.965410 4470.969794 7.166898e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 49.309718 97.655988 226.076628 754.203155 5688.277188 9.514044e+06 NaN
2025-05-11 46.919245 94.369266 223.899748 785.282192 6873.559347 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 44.558213 90.827164 220.181842 807.682929 8149.827749 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 41.439006 85.004697 208.191178 780.481028 8464.424868 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 38.668990 79.778865 197.228503 754.341689 8760.804185 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 35.931548 74.365840 184.799969 714.737988 8631.274293 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 35.749041 75.534314 194.235384 810.007253 12963.072324 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 34.230520 73.001455 190.669862 823.646999 15219.949511 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 33.285353 71.899693 191.901425 871.409008 20052.019815 NaN NaN